As the leaves turn and the air carries that subtle hint of holiday cheer, Houston’s weather is reminding us why we love—and sometimes groan at—living in the heart of Texas. On this mild Saturday, November 22, 2025, the city is waking up to a mix of lingering clouds and peeks of sunshine, with temperatures hovering in the low 80s. But don’t get too comfortable under those short sleeves just yet. Meteorologists are eyeing a pattern of scattered showers rolling through the coming week, keeping outdoor plans on their toes. And with Thanksgiving just five days away on November 27, families across the Bayou City are crossing their fingers for a dry turkey day. Spoiler: The forecast leans toward clear skies and cooler temps, but we’ll dive into the details. In this deep dive into Houston’s weather outlook, we’ll break down the rain risks, what to expect for the holiday feast, and how to make the most of whatever Mother Nature throws our way.
Let’s start with where we stand right now. Today marks the unofficial kickoff to a busier forecast period, as a weak cold front from the north nudges against the warm Gulf moisture that’s been dominating our skies. According to local reports, expect highs around 80 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit, with a 30% chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms popping up before mid-morning. Winds from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph will keep things breezy, potentially whipping up some chop on Galveston Bay if you’re planning a weekend boat outing. Overnight, things calm down to partly cloudy skies and a comfortable low dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s—perfect for firing up the grill one last time before the holiday rush. It’s that classic Houston November tease: warm enough to fool you into thinking summer’s not fully gone, but with enough chill in the evening air to make a light jacket feel just right.
Heading into Sunday, November 23, the rain threat eases up significantly. Highs will hold steady in the low 80s, but with zero percent chance of precipitation reported, it’s shaping up as a prime day for errands, park visits, or tackling that holiday shopping list at The Galleria. Winds shift easterly, still around 10 to 15 mph, which could mean a touch more humidity creeping in from the Gulf. Lows overnight drop to the mid-60s, setting a balmy stage for the workweek ahead. If you’re a weekend warrior hitting the trails at Memorial Park or catching a Astros offseason event, this looks like smooth sailing—no pun intended.
But here’s where the plot thickens: Monday and Tuesday, November 24 and 25, bring back those rain chances we’ve been dodging since early fall. With a 40% probability each day, expect scattered showers and possibly a rumble or two of thunder as another system slides in from the west. Highs stay toasty in the upper 70s to low 80s, but the added moisture could make afternoons feel stickier, pushing humidity levels toward 70-80%. This isn’t the deluge that floods I-45, mind you—more like the kind of pop-up rain that sends you scrambling for cover during your lunch break at a downtown café. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph will funnel that Gulf air right into town, so if you’re commuting from The Woodlands or Katy, keep an eye on radar apps like those from KHOU or Weather Underground. By Tuesday evening, lows cool to around 60 degrees, a welcome relief if the showers taper off as predicted.
Wednesday, November 26—the day before the big feast—offers a brief respite with dry conditions and highs in the mid-70s. Winds ease to southeasterly at about 10 mph, and with no rain in sight, it’s an ideal window for pre-Thanksgiving prep: stocking up on cranberry sauce at H-E-B or rehearsing your pie-baking skills without worrying about a sudden downpour ruining the dough. But don’t pack away the umbrellas entirely. As we edge into Thanksgiving, a stronger cold front is lurking, poised to sweep through late in the week. This setup echoes patterns we’ve seen in recent Novembers, where warm fronts clash with cooler air masses, sparking those intermittent showers that keep our reservoirs from drying out completely.
Now, the main event: Thanksgiving Day itself on Thursday, November 27. If you’re dreaming of a Norman Rockwell scene with the family gathered around a sunlit table, the forecast is largely on your side. Highs are expected to top out around 67 degrees, a noticeable drop from the week’s earlier warmth, thanks to that incoming front. Skies should be mostly clear to partly cloudy, with zero percent chance of rain—music to the ears of anyone planning a turkey trot at Eleanor Tinsley Park or a backyard football game in the suburbs. Lows plunge to the upper 40s overnight, so layer up for those early morning runs or if you’re traveling to Grandma’s in Sugar Land. Northeasterly winds at 15 mph might add a crisp bite, but nothing that’ll chase you indoors before dessert. Local forecasters from the National Weather Service align on this cooler, drier vibe, predicting partly sunny conditions with highs near 67 and comfortable lows around 49. It’s a far cry from the steamy Thanksgivings of yore, but after Houston’s record-breaking hot summers, this feels like a refreshing pivot toward winter.
Of course, no holiday forecast is complete without considering the travel angle. With millions hitting the roads, rails, and runways out of George Bush Intercontinental or Hobby Airport, that cold front could stir minor disruptions. While Houston itself stays dry on the 27th, the lead-up days carry those 40% rain risks on Monday and Tuesday, potentially slicking up the highways like US-59 or the Sam Houston Tollway. The Houston Chronicle notes that broader Texas could see heavier action west of San Antonio, with a level 2 flood risk stretching from Dallas-Fort Worth southward, but our corner of the state should dodge the worst. For flyers, expect on-time departures barring any Gulf Coast thunderstorms, and drivers should budget extra time if rain hits en route from Austin or San Antonio. The Old Farmer’s Almanac chimes in optimistically, calling for “smooth travel” across much of Texas, with only isolated showers in southern areas like ours. If you’re hosting out-of-towners, remind them to pack a rain jacket for the week—just in case.
Beyond the holiday, the weekend after Thanksgiving keeps the cooling trend alive. Friday, November 28, brings highs of 66 degrees with a 30% chance of showers as post-front instability lingers, and lows in the upper 40s. It’s Black Friday shopping weather at its finest: cool enough for boots and scarves, but not so frigid that waiting in line at Best Buy feels like punishment. Saturday the 29th warms slightly to 65 degrees with minimal rain (12% chance), while Sunday the 30th climbs to 68 with 40% odds of scattered showers—perhaps a gentle nudge toward December’s more wintry feel. Looking further out, the Almanac’s extended view hints at rainy and cold conditions early December, but for now, we’re in that sweet spot of transitional weather.
What does all this mean for daily life in Houston? For starters, those mid-week rain chances are a boon for our parched lawns and the Buffalo Bayou—after a dry spell since October, any precipitation helps recharge the aquifers without overwhelming the drainage systems. Gardeners might seize the dry Wednesday to plant cool-season veggies like broccoli or lettuce, while allergy sufferers could breathe easier with the frontal passages flushing out pollen. On the flip side, construction crews along the I-10 expansion or homeowners prepping roofs for winter should monitor for slick conditions. And for event-goers, the clear Thanksgiving forecast bodes well for parades, like the downtown holiday kickoff, or tailgate-style gatherings at NRG Stadium if any pop-up festivities arise.
If you’re looking to outsmart the forecast, here are a few Houston-specific tips. First, download a reliable app—KHOU 11’s radar is gold for real-time updates on those pop-up storms. Second, for Thanksgiving, opt for indoor-outdoor flexibility: Set up tents on the patio if you’re in Cypress or plan a covered cookout at Hermann Park. Layering is key; think breathable base layers for the warm mornings and a windbreaker for the cooling evenings. Hydration remains crucial even in cooler temps—Houston’s humidity can sneak up on you. And if rain does interrupt, pivot to cozy alternatives: A movie marathon at Alamo Drafthouse or baking session with local spices from the Houston Farmers Market. Remember, part of the charm of H-town weather is its unpredictability—it keeps us adaptable and appreciative of the sunny stretches.
Peering ahead, this pattern fits into a broader November trend for Houston: milder than average temps with about 3 to 8 rainy days, per historical data. Space City Weather’s two-week outlook aligns, noting low rain odds early but building to 20-30% by mid-week, culminating in that 30% Thanksgiving whisper—though current models favor drier. As we wrap up, Houston’s weather this week is a microcosm of the season: A blend of reluctant goodbyes to summer warmth and hellos to holiday crispness, punctuated by those familiar showers that green our urban jungle. Whether you’re basting a bird or browsing Black Friday deals, stay informed, stay flexible, and here’s to raising a glass (or a fork) to whatever skies unfold. After all, in Houston, the weather’s just another ingredient in our flavorful mix.